Rainfall Variability and Agricultural Vulnerability in the Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Abstract

Ethiopian agriculture is mostly rain fed. whereas inter-annual and .~easonal
rainfall variability is high and droughlS are frequent in many parts of the counlly.
Rainfall variability has historically been a major cause of food insecurity and
famines in the country. Surprisingly, however, rhe relationships between raillfall
variability alld fluctuations in agricultural production at regional and subregional
.~cales have not been studied in detail. The objecrive of this study is to
analyze rainfall variability and trends, and examine vulnerability of food grain
production 10 rainfall variability in the Amhara Region o/Ethiopia. The dala used
for the study were historical rainfall records from 12 stations (for fhe 1975-2003
period) and available time series data on area coverage, production and yield of
cereals during the meher season- main growing season (jor the 1994-2003
period). The results reveal that there are significant intra-regional differences in
rainfall amount, variability and trend; and the variability increases as rainfail
amount decreases. Rainfall amount is higher and it.~ variability lower in the
western part of the region than in the eastern. FOllr drollght years have occurred
over the period 1975-2003, of which two were extreme in severity. Examination of
trends in annual and seasonal rainfali generally shows absence of any systematic
pat/erns of change across Ihe region. Significant correlations were ob.~erved
between the seasonal rainfall and crop production. Inter-annual and seasonal
rainfall variability is Iherefore an important influence on food security off arming
households; it also suggests thor predicted climatic change wilf have significant
impacts. Hence, wafer resources development including household level rainwater
harvesting needs to be widely undertaken as it has a potential to Jerve as an
adaptation strategy to current rainfall variability as well as to future changes in
the climate .