PROJECTIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIV/AIDS EPIDEMICS IN ETHOPIA

Abstract

SUMMARY: The accumulated global experience on the duration of HIV latency period and the rates of annual progression to clinical AIDS provided the basis on which to formulate projections on the development of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Using the data available for 1989 on HIV prevalence in the adult population of Ethiopia and the computer model developed by the WHO Global Programme on AIDS, projections of the epidemic in this country were made. Conservative estimates on the number of STDs infected persons and AIDS cases indicate that Ethiopia is one to three years behind the most AIDS affected countries of Africa in the development of HIV I AIDS epidemic. According to the estimates the national AIDS case surveillance network was able to identify about 10% of the cases which have actually occurred. The progression of the epidemic is threatening, and it requires mobilization of all sectors of the society in order to affect HIV transmission.